SOUN · L3

SoundHound AI

Model Labs & Pure-Plays

Provides voice AI and conversational interfaces for cars, restaurants, and devices.

moderateConvergence

Six-Indicator Fragility Read

Depreciation IntegrityI1
15
LOW-RELEVANCE / NOT APPLICABLE (~15)
Capex-vs-Demand Gap / Revenue QualityI2
60
AMBER (~55–65)
Insider-Selling Intensity / Dilution IntensityI3
87
RED (~85–90)
Financing Opacity / Circular LeverageI4
65
AMBER–RED (~60–70)
Energy & Diminishing ReturnsI5
20
LOW-RELEVANCE (~20)
Organic End-User DemandI6
55
AMBER (~50–60)

Verdict

{'verdict': '3 signals sit in the elevated band: insider-selling intensity, operating leverage and the AI-monetization gap. This does not trip the convergence flag. Ranks 20th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa051.3), below MongoDB and Snowflake.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 51.3, 'n_elevated': 3, 'convergence': 'moderate', 'rank': 20, 'elevated': ['insider-selling intensity', 'operating leverage', 'the AI-monetization gap']}}

Price · 50-session
$6.20 -42.1% · 50-session price series

Cross-Examination

'Gross margin collapsed from roughly 75% to 37% in two years. Revenue doubled in FY2025 — but Amelia cost roughly $80 million and Synq3 plus Interactions cost $60 million. Strip out the acquired revenue and tell me what organic voice AI grew.'

Gross margin: FY2023 ~75.4%, FY2024 ~48.9%, Q1 2025 ~36.5% (analyst commentary referencing SOUN 10-K/10-Q — SECONDARY, medium confidence). Compression driver: Amelia acquisition (~$80M, amortization of acquired intangibles) and Synq3+Interactions (~$60M, Sep 2025) (Simply Wall St. — SECONDARY). FY2025 total revenue: $169M (+99% YoY). FY2024 revenue: $84.7M (+85% YoY). Organic vs. acquisition-driven revenue breakdown: NOT SOURCED — SoundHound does not disclose this in press releases.

'SBC was $120.8 million in Q4 2025 against revenue of $54.7 million in the same quarter. Shares outstanding went from 248 million in December 2023 to 422 million in December 2025 — 68% dilution in two years. In May 2026 you filed a $300 million ATM that is already automatically effective. Who are you diluting toward?'

SBC Q4 2025: $120.8M vs. Q4 2025 revenue: $54.7M (analyst commentary referencing SOUN financial disclosures — SECONDARY). Shares outstanding: Dec 2023 ~248M; Dec 2025: 422,606,099 (secondary analysis citing SEC Form-3 data — SECONDARY). $300M ATM: Rule 462(e) automatic effectiveness, filed May 2026 (secondary citing SOUN 8-K/S-3 — SECONDARY). Additional dilution pipeline: RSUs 15.97M + options 3.88M + warrants 3.65M + acquisition milestones 20.84M = ~44M+ shares. Accumulated deficit: -$1.067B (FY2025 10-K — PRIMARY). Equity positive at +$463.8M; cash $248M (FY2025 10-K — PRIMARY).

'FY2024 GAAP net loss was $350.7 million — four times annual revenue. You have an accumulated deficit of $1.07 billion. Non-GAAP EBITDA was negative $61.9 million for the same year after stripping out $108 million in non-cash warrant fair-value swings. When does this business generate positive EBITDA, and what does the model require to get there?'

FY2024 GAAP net loss: -$350.7M (4× FY2024 revenue of $84.7M, MacroTrends/SOUN 10-K — SECONDARY). Accumulated deficit: -$1.067B (FY2025 10-K — PRIMARY). Non-GAAP EBITDA FY2024: -$61.9M (analyst commentary — SECONDARY). Non-cash warrant/derivative fair-value changes flow through P&L via share-settled warrants from 2023 PIPE and RDO transactions. Management guided improving margins in 2026; FY2026 guidance revenue $225–260M (SECONDARY). Timeline to EBITDA-positive: NOT SOURCED.