Model Labs & Pure-Plays
A leader in robotic process automation (RPA), adding AI to automate business workflows.
{'verdict': '2 signals sit in the elevated band: organic-demand sustainability and insider-selling intensity. This does not trip the convergence flag. Ranks 36th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa039.9), below Cloudflare and TSMC.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 39.9, 'n_elevated': 2, 'convergence': 'moderate', 'rank': 36, 'elevated': ['organic-demand sustainability', 'insider-selling intensity']}}
'ARR growth has decelerated in a straight line from roughly 50% to 11% over four years — $186 million net new ARR in FY2026 on a $1.85 billion base. Microsoft Power Automate ships bundled in Microsoft 365 at zero marginal cost to your enterprise customers. How many of your 2,506 customers spending $100K or more are primarily automating Microsoft workflows that Microsoft already covers for free?'
ARR deceleration: ~50% → ~32% → ~17% → ~11% (FY2022–FY2026, extrapolated from ARR figures in UiPath earnings releases — PRIMARY/SECONDARY). Net-new ARR FY2026: $186M (FY2026 annual earnings — PRIMARY). Q4 FY2026 ARR: $1.853B (+11% YoY — PRIMARY). Customers $100K+ ARR: 2,506 (Q3 FY2026 — SECONDARY). Microsoft Power Automate competitive threat identified in sheet. Percentage of ARR at substitution risk: NOT SOURCED from UiPath filings.
'Daniel Dines returned as CEO in June 2024 and has since sold 1,440,000 shares — roughly $24 million confirmed under a 10b5-1 plan. The company simultaneously completed a $1 billion buyback and authorized another $500 million. The company thinks the stock is cheap enough to buy back while the founder thinks it is expensive enough to sell. Which side of that trade has more information?'
Dines reinstated CEO June 1, 2024 (per FEED ACCURACY FLAG in Indicator 3). Dines code S: 1,440,000 shares / ~$24.1M (EDGAR PRIMARY, 50-filing scan; 10b5-1 plan confirmed; near-daily ~45,000-share cadence). $1B buyback completed; new $500M buyback authorized (FY2026 annual earnings context — SECONDARY). Cash $1.69B (FY2026 annual earnings — PRIMARY). GAAP operating income FY2026: +$57M (first-ever positive full-year, PRIMARY). Valuation multiple: NOT SOURCED from SEC filings.
'NDR is 107% and gross retention is 97–98% — the strongest demand metrics in your Level 3 cohort. This sheet concedes those numbers. But the Special Angle says: if NDR drops below 100%, that is the trigger signal. Agentic AI from Microsoft and SAP is designed to eat exactly the workflow orchestration that UiPath charges for. What specifically prevents NDR from crossing that threshold in the next 1
NDR Q3 FY2026: 107%; Q1 FY2026: 108% (SECONDARY). Gross retention: 97–98%. Convergence flag: NOT ACTIVE — UiPath is healthiest company in Level 3 cohort per sheet. Competitive threats: Microsoft Power Automate, Copilot Studio, SAP Build Process Automation, ServiceNow Flow Designer (identified in Indicator 6 — not quantified). UiPath response: "Agentic Automation" combining RPA with LLM-based agents (CEO Dines, FY2026 annual earnings — PRIMARY). Customers $1M+ ARR: 333 (Q3 FY2026 — SECONDARY) represent deep platform integration. Quantitative revenue-at-risk from competitive displacement: NOT PUBLICLY MODELED.