AI Software & Applications
Makes TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma; embedding AI to automate tax and small-business finance.
{'verdict': 'No signals sit in the elevated band. Ranks 45th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa034.6), below Palantir and Netflix.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 34.6, 'n_elevated': 0, 'convergence': 'watch', 'rank': 45, 'elevated': []}}
You call this an AI company. The CFO press release says 'transformative AI agents across our business platform.' Where is the revenue line for those agents?
There is no separate AI-agent ARR or AI-attach rate in any filed document in this pull. The clearest proxy for AI monetization is TurboTax Live at ~$2.0B (+47%), but that is an AI-human hybrid — Intuit does not file the AI automation contribution vs. human labor cost split. The "AI agents" language is 100% call-stated with zero filed ARR attribution.
Credit Karma made $2,263M in FY2025, up 32.5%. The sheet says that growth is 'macro-driven, not AI-feature driven.' So when rates bite again, what's the real Credit Karma run-rate?
FY2023 — a rising-rate year — Credit Karma grew from $1,591M to $1,634M: +$43M, +3%. The FY2025 surge (+$555M, +32.5%) was driven by personal loans (+$221M), credit cards (+$213M), and auto insurance (+$99M). If credit conditions tighten, the bear case reverts Credit Karma to that +3% trajectory. Credit Karma is ~12% of total FY2025 revenue; a reversion would cost roughly $500M in expected growth.
CEO Goodarzi adopted his first 10b5-1 plan September 30, 2024. The sheet notes the AI-agent narrative was building then. Is a plan 'non-discretionary' if it's set at the peak of the narrative?
The sheet acknowledges this: 'Plans can be adopted opportunistically; the Sept-2024 plan was set as the AI-agent narrative was building.' The combined Dec-30-2024 sale was ~$94.6M — all under that plan. The structure is technically programmatic, but the adoption timing is a fair question the sheet doesn't resolve. Co-founder Scott Cook's $51.3M in parallel code S sales has no confirmed 10b5-1 plan date in this pull, making Cook's selling the more ambiguous signal of the two.