The Broader Market
Deere — makes agricultural and construction machinery and leads in autonomous, precision farming.
{'verdict': 'No signals sit in the elevated band. Ranks 51st of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa0—), below GE and AAPL.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': None, 'n_elevated': 0, 'convergence': 'watch', 'rank': 51, 'elevated': []}}
Deere's P/E was 10.2x when EPS was $34.63 in FY2023. Now EPS is $18.50 — down 47% from peak — and the P/E is 33x. EPS is guided lower again to roughly $15 for FY2026. You are paying more for less earnings every year. What do you think the market is pricing in?
The sheet documents the P/E inversion exactly: 'The P/E was 10-12x when Deere's EPS was at record highs ($34.63 in FY2023). Now P/E is 33x with EPS having fallen 47% from peak.' The sheet identifies two competing explanations: the simpler one is cyclical-trough mechanics — 'price holds while trough EPS collapses, mechanically inflating the multiple.' The secondary explanation is the market assigning a precision-ag technology premium 'analogous to the EV premium applied to auto OEMs in 2020–21.' But the sheet labels that decomposition as 'the sheet's own ESTIMATE — NOT SOURCED, not analyst-derived.' The bear case puts it plainly: if the precision-ag thesis fails, a return to 14–18x on depressed earnings 'would imply 40–55% downside.'
You tell me Deere has autonomous tractors, See & Spray with 59% herbicide savings, and an Operations Center platform. Show me the subscription revenue line in the 10-K.
It isn't there. The sheet states explicitly: 'ZERO subscription revenue is separately disclosed in any 10-K.' The entire technology portfolio — See & Spray, autonomous 8R, Operations Center — is bundled into the Production and Precision Agriculture segment revenue line with no AI or technology sub-breakout. R&D spending of $2,311M in FY2025 is filed, but it covers all R&D with no AI vs. non-AI split. The sheet names the disclosure gap directly: 'the gap between story and filed metric is total.'
The CEO sold $26.35M of stock via a pre-set 10b5-1 plan adopted in June 2025, executing the sales in November 2025 and January 2026 at around $500 — while guiding the business to a further earnings decline in FY2026. What does that tell you?
The sheet documents both sells: November 25, 2025 — 11,106 shares at $500.08 = $5.55M; January 8, 2026 — 41,472 shares at $501.49 = $20.8M. Both via a 10b5-1 plan adopted June 20, 2025. The FY2026 guidance issued with Q4 FY2025 results (November 2025) was $4.0B–$4.75B net income, down from $5.027B in FY2025 — a further decline. The sheet notes CEO retained ~173,752 total shares (~$101M at $585) and frames the 10b5-1 as 'consistent with diversification.' The timing — plan adopted during a mid-year trough, executed at the guidance release — is noted by the sheet but not flagged as a red signal given the pre-set nature.