AI Software & Applications
A leading cloud cybersecurity platform that uses AI to detect and stop attacks on devices.
{'verdict': 'No signals sit in the elevated band. Ranks 46th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa034), below Intuit and Palantir.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 34.0, 'n_elevated': 0, 'convergence': 'watch', 'rank': 46, 'elevated': []}}
'The July 19 outage cost $60 million net in FY2025 and $117.7 million net in FY2026 — $177.8 million total net over two years, after insurance. Gross costs and the insurance recovery rate are both not disclosed in SEC filings. NRR compressed from 147% at IPO to 115% today. How much of the Q4 FY2026 record net new ARR of $330.7 million is organic demand and how much is customers letting outage cred
July 19 costs: FY2025 $60.062M net; FY2026 $117.730M net; total $177.792M net (CRWD FY2026 EX-99.1 filed 2026-03-03 — PRIMARY). Gross costs and insurance recovery rate: NOT SOURCED. NRR: 115% (CRWD 10-K crwd-20260131.htm — PRIMARY). Historical NRR peak: 147% (IPO era, Jan 2019). Q4 FY2026 net new ARR: $330.7M (+47% YoY, CRWD FY2026 EX-99.1 — PRIMARY). Sheet's bear case notes customer credits "may have pulled forward expansions, distorting Q4 FY2026 net new ARR." Credit package details and credit-expiry contribution to Q4 net new ARR: NOT SOURCED.
'You call Falcon AI-native. There is no AI-specific ARR sub-line in any SEC filing. Falcon Flex at $1.69 billion ARR is a purchasing model, not an AI product. Cloud Security plus Next-Gen Identity plus SIEM exceeded $1.35 billion at over 200% growth — but those are platform modules grouped together. Where exactly does the AI premium show up in your revenue, and what would investors need to see to
AI-specific ARR sub-line: NOT DISCLOSED in SEC filings (CRWD FY2026 EX-99.1, Q3 FY2026 EX-99.1, and 10-K reviewed — PRIMARY). Falcon Flex ARR: $1.69B (+120% YoY) — a purchasing model framed as "AI transformation enablement," not a filed AI revenue category (CRWD FY2026 EX-99.1 — PRIMARY). Cloud Security + Next-Gen Identity + Next-Gen SIEM: exceeded $1.35B ARR (+>200% YoY as of Q3 FY2026, CRWD Q3 FY2026 EX-99.1 — PRIMARY). "AI-native" is a positioning label — discrete AI-incremental ARR vs. consolidated platform ARR is indistinguishable in SEC filings.
'George Kurtz sold approximately $217.5 million over 24 months — $173.6 million in calendar 2025 alone — as the stock recovered from the July 19 outage into the $700s. The 10b5-1 plan was adopted January 6, 2026, right after the fiscal year-end. He retains roughly 2.1 million shares. This sheet rates it AMBER because the plan is pre-committed and the retained stake is large. But who adopts a $173
Kurtz total sales trailing 24 months: ~$217.5M (~$173.6M CY2025); sale price range $293–$784; plan adopted 2026-01-06; retained shares ~2.1M (SEC Form 4 CIK 0001778564 — PRIMARY). Jun 16, 2026 Form 4: ~1,893 shares at $680–699/share (~$1.3M tranche), footnote verbatim "shares sold pursuant to a 10b-1 plan adopted on January 6, 2026" — biweekly cadence confirmed (PRIMARY). NRR was 115% (compressed) at time of selling. Indicator 3 rated AMBER: "heavy programmatic diversification by a founder-CEO, not a conviction liquidation." Kurtz's private rationale for plan sizing and timing: NOT SOURCED.