Model Labs & Pure-Plays
Provides AI-driven analytics and decision support, largely for defense and government.
{'verdict': '3 signals sit in the elevated band: the AI-monetization gap, operating leverage and organic-demand sustainability. This trips the convergence flag. Ranks 13th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa057.6), below Anthropic and Alphabet.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 57.6, 'n_elevated': 3, 'convergence': 'active', 'rank': 13, 'elevated': ['the AI-monetization gap', 'operating leverage', 'organic-demand sustainability']}}
'You recorded $85 million in goodwill impairment in Q1 2024, $70.6 million more in Q2 2025, and $53.4 million in long-lived asset impairment in Q4 2025 — $209 million in write-downs over 18 months on a company with $127.7 million in annual revenue. The impairment test used a 31% discount rate, pricing you as near-distressed. What exactly did you buy with Pangiam that is worth anything near what yo
Goodwill impairment #1: $85.0M (Q1 2024, BBAI 10-Q bbai-20240331 — PRIMARY). Impairment #2: $70.636M (Q2 2025, BBAI 10-Q bbai-20250630 — PRIMARY). Asset impairment: $53.4M (Q4 2025, earnings release — SECONDARY). Discount rate used in Q1 2024 impairment test: 31%. FY2025 revenue: $127.7M (computed from quarterly figures). FY2025 operating loss: -$213.9M including $124M of impairment charges. Pangiam brought government intelligence/customs analytics. Whether those capabilities have generated replacement revenue: NOT SOURCED.
'You restated every quarterly and annual filing from 2022 through 2024 because the 2026 convertible notes — issued December 2021 — had a derivative bifurcation error that existed since day one. That error added $108 million to your reported net loss in FY2024 and $92.8 million in FY2025. Three years of materially misstated financials. How should investors trust any figure this company has ever pub
Restatement scope: FY2022 and FY2023 10-Ks, all 2023 quarterly 10-Qs, all 2024 quarterly 10-Qs (BBAI Q1 2025 10-Q bbai-20250331 — PRIMARY). Cause: 2026 Notes conversion option contained anti-dilution provisions violating ASC 815-40 "fixed-for-fixed" criteria; bifurcation required since Dec 2021 issuance was not applied until the FY2024 10-K. P&L impact from non-cash fair-value changes: +$108.1M (FY2024, BBAI FY2024 earnings release — PRIMARY); +$92.8M (FY2025 — SECONDARY). Whether external auditors self-identified the error: NOT SOURCED from BBAI filings.
'Q4 2025 revenue was $27.3 million — down 38% from Q4 2024's $43.8 million. Management cited lower volume on Army programs. What is the specific Army program that ended, and what signed replacement contract fills that gap in FY2026?'
Q4 2025 revenue: $27.3M vs. Q4 2024: $43.8M (-38% YoY, BigBear.ai Q4 2025 earnings — SECONDARY). FY2025 revenue: $127.7M, down 19.3% from FY2024 $158.2M (SECONDARY/COMPUTED). Management attributed decline to "lower volume on Army programs" (BigBear.ai FY2024 earnings release — SECONDARY). Individual Army program names: NOT SOURCED. New replacement contract wins sufficient to offset lost Army revenue: NOT SOURCED in filings reviewed. RPO figure: NOT SOURCED — no RPO was found in earnings releases reviewed.