Compute & Infrastructure
The sole maker of the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines required to manufacture the most advanced chips.
{'verdict': '1 signal sits in the elevated band: the AI-monetization gap. This does not trip the convergence flag. Ranks 42nd of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa037.5), below Cisco and Eli Lilly.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 37.5, 'n_elevated': 1, 'convergence': 'watch', 'rank': 42, 'elevated': ['the AI-monetization gap']}}
China was 36.1% of FY2024 sales and 33% of FY2025 system sales. Management guides ~20% for FY2026 — a 16-percentage-point cliff on €32.7B in annual revenue, or roughly €5B to replace. Where does that come from, and is the ~20% guidance in a primary filing?
The China figures are primary: 36.1% FY2024 from the Form 20-F Risk Factors; 33% FY2025 from company commentary cited by CNBC (med conf). The ~20% FY2026 guidance is from CFO Dassen (Oct 2024, CNBC) and Q4 2025 company commentary (med conf) — not yet verified in the 2025 20-F geographic note, which the sheet flags as needing verification before publish. EUV has not been shipped to China under Dutch/U.S. export policy (20-F confirms license requirements). The bull case is the record FY2025 EUV bookings (Q4 2025 alone €13.2B, €7.4B EUV) and €38.8B year-end backlog (~1.2× revenue) pointing to non-China demand. The bear case is that any gap from 36.1% to managed 20% depends on TSMC and memory expansion timing plus licensing approval for already-ordered systems.
Net bookings were €3.9B in Q1 2025 — below ~€4.9B consensus — then hit a record €13.2B in Q4 2025. Which quarter is the signal for normalized demand?
Both figures are primary: Q1 2025 bookings €3.9B (ASML Q1 2025 press release); Q4 2025 bookings €13.2B including €7.4B EUV (Q4 2025 press release). Year-end backlog €38.8B is primary. The sheet characterizes the swing as "demand-timing risk even with healthy backlog" — bookings are volatile quarter-to-quarter even while trailing-twelve revenue grows. FY2026 guidance €36–40B (raised from €34–39B after Q1 2026) and "significant increase in EUV sales" support the bull read. The bear read: a repeat Q1-2025-style miss against a ~€5B quarterly consensus in a China-normalizing environment is plausible and would hit a stock priced for cycle continuation.
ASML insiders disclose under EU MAR, not SEC Form 4 — so there is no complete insider-selling trail available. How do we evaluate insider confidence in ASML when the primary U.S. disclosure mechanism does not apply?
The EDGAR Form 4 check run 2026-06-19 confirms zero Form 4 filings for ASML — Dutch foreign private issuer, EU MAR is the only disclosure regime (primary confirmation). Retiring Co-Presidents Wennink and Brink sold ~€5–7M each around their Jan 2024 succession (secondary aggregators, med-low conf); CEO Fouquet sold ~€2M in early 2025 (secondary aggregators, med-low conf). Neither set of figures is individually verified from a clean primary source. The corporate counter-signal is sourced primary: FY2025 share repurchases €5.95B with a new €12B buyback program through 2028 (Q4 2025 press release). The sheet deliberately scores Indicator 3 green-amber (~22–32) and says the lack of a Form 4 trail "lowers confidence in either direction" — it is not an all-clear, and it is not a red flag.