Compute & Infrastructure
Designs CPUs and GPUs for data centers, PCs, and gaming; its Instinct accelerators are the main rival to Nvidia in AI training and inference.
{'verdict': '3 signals sit in the elevated band: operating leverage, the AI-monetization gap and organic-demand sustainability. This trips the convergence flag. Ranks 10th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa059.6), below OpenAI and Broadcom.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 59.6, 'n_elevated': 3, 'convergence': 'active', 'rank': 10, 'elevated': ['operating leverage', 'the AI-monetization gap', 'organic-demand sustainability']}}
OpenAI receives up to 160 million AMD shares at a penny each if they hit GPU deployment milestones. What is that structure if not a kickback to lock procurement volume?
Per the October 6, 2025 8-K, OpenAI holds a warrant to acquire up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01 per share, vesting on GPU deployment milestones through October 5, 2030. No tranches vested in FY2025, so the warrant had zero FY2025 financial impact on AMD's reported results. This sheet scores Indicator 4 (financing opacity/circular leverage) at approximately 77, elevated specifically because the structure ties buyer economics to the seller's stock — milestone-vesting equity in exchange for GPU procurement volume.
AMD's Instinct GPU revenue is described as 'record' in FY2025. What is the actual audited dollar number?
The Instinct dollar total for FY2025 is NOT SOURCED in this sheet — AMD's filings describe it as "record" without breaking out Instinct GPU revenue as a separate audited line item. AMD's total FY2025 Data Center revenue of $16,635M is confirmed in the 10-K, up 32% year over year, as is total revenue of $34,639B. The Instinct-specific figure exists only in management commentary without an audited line breakout. That gap is notable context when AMD's forward P/E is approximately 60x versus the semiconductor sector forward P/E of approximately 37.3x.
AMD booked an $800 million export-control charge on MI308 in Q2 2025, then reversed $360 million of it and recognized $390 million in Q4 China revenue. What does that say about where Instinct demand actually lives?
Per this sheet's SPECIAL ANGLE, the MI308 export-control whipsaw — $800M charge in Q2 2025, $360M reversal and $390M Q4 China revenue — is identified as geopolitical demand risk not present in the NVDA sheet. The pattern indicates a material portion of AMD Instinct demand is China-origin, subject to U.S. export-control regulation that can swing from a charge to a reversal to re-recognition within a single fiscal year. AMD's total FY2025 Data Center revenue is $16,635M; the MI308 charge and reversal together represent a swing of over $1B on that base in a single year.
CEO Lisa Su sold roughly $220 million in AMD shares under a 10b5-1 plan while her direct stake dropped about 25%. Another officer sold $16.3 million with no plan detected. Is insider selling a signal here?
CEO Su's code-S sales of approximately 810,000 shares generating approximately $220.8M were executed under a 10b5-1 plan adopted September 2025, and her direct holdings declined approximately 25% in the window reviewed. The sheet explicitly scores Indicator 3 at approximately 34 — deliberately NOT red — because the plan structure mitigates the signal for the CEO. The flag is the officer identified as Grasby, who sold approximately $16.3M with no detected 10b5-1 plan. Total all-officer code-S is approximately $321M. The sheet keeps insider low on purpose; the convergence case rests on Indicators 2, 4, and 6.