Model Labs & Pure-Plays
Sells enterprise AI application software for industrial and government use.
{'verdict': '3 signals sit in the elevated band: insider-selling intensity, organic-demand sustainability and the AI-monetization gap. This trips the convergence flag. Ranks 17th of 68 on composite fragility (F\xa052.75), below CAT and Intel.', 'as_of': '2026-07-11', 'source': 'engine-restatement (T1)', 'snapshot': {'composite_f': 52.75, 'n_elevated': 3, 'convergence': 'active', 'rank': 17, 'elevated': ['insider-selling intensity', 'organic-demand sustainability', 'the AI-monetization gap']}}
'Revenue was $109 million in Q4 FY2025 and $53.3 million in Q3 FY2026 — a 51% drop in three quarters. Gross margin went from 61% to 17% in the same window. You announced a 26% workforce cut alongside these numbers. At what point does "pilot-heavy mix" become "business failure"?'
Q3 FY2026 revenue: $53.3M (-46% YoY); gross margin: 17% (down from 61% GAAP FY2025); net loss: $133.4M; 26% workforce reduction announced simultaneously (C3.ai Q3 FY2026 earnings, 2026-02-25 — PRIMARY). Prior-quarter peak: Q4 FY2025 $109M. CFO acknowledged in Q3 FY2025 that "some moderation in gross margins due to a higher mix of pilots" was expected (SECONDARY). Pilot-to-production conversion rate: NOT SOURCED — not disclosed in SEC filings.
'Thomas Siebel sold approximately $155 million in calendar 2025 as the stock fell from $33 to $13 — under a 10b5-1 plan dated September 20, 2024. The CEO, President, and CFO all sold alongside him. Who in the C-suite was buying?'
EDGAR PRIMARY scan (50 of 90 Form 4 filings): Siebel ~$81M in the scanned window (full CY2025 estimate ~$155M from monthly Form 4 totals); CEO Ehikian ~$3.6M; President Schilling ~$8.1M; CFO Lath ~$1.5M. Code F across all five filers: zero. Zero offsetting purchases identified. Siebel 10b5-1 plan dated 2024-09-20 (EDGAR PRIMARY). Sales prices declined from $31.38 (Jan 2025) to $14–15 range (Dec 2025) (EDGAR PRIMARY).
'RPO was $223.2 million as of July 31, 2025, with your own CFO guiding it to decline "in the near term." Cash fell from roughly $724 million to $621.9 million in one year while you lost $133.4 million in a single quarter. How many quarters of runway does that math buy you?'
RPO: $223.2M as of Jul 31, 2025 (Q1 FY26), with $121.3M expected recognized in next 12 months; prior RPO ~$208M as of Jan 31, 2025 (C3.ai 10-Q for quarter ended Jul 31, 2025 — PRIMARY; Q3 FY25 SECONDARY). CFO Q3 FY25: RPO "expected to decline in the near term" (SECONDARY). Cash and marketable securities: ~$621.9M (Q3 FY2026, Jan 31, 2026) vs. ~$724.3M one year prior (SECONDARY). FY2025 GAAP net loss: -$288.7M on $389M revenue. Q3 FY2026 alone: -$133.4M on $53.3M revenue. Runway calculation post-26% RIF: NOT SOURCED.
'MIT NANDA found 95% of enterprise GenAI pilots show zero measurable P&L impact. You have been selling enterprise AI applications since 2009 and are still losing $288 million a year. What structural advantage does C3.ai have that 15 years of selling and $288M in annual losses has not been able to demonstrate?'
MIT NANDA "GenAI Divide" (Aug 2025): ~95% of enterprise GenAI pilots showed zero measurable P&L impact; ~5% measurable ROI (Fortune, 2025-08-18 — PRIMARY). FY2025 GAAP net loss: -$288.7M; loss per share: -$2.24 (C3.ai FY2025 earnings release — PRIMARY). C3.ai founded 2009 per SPECIAL ANGLE section. Federal bookings +89% YoY in Q2 FY26 (CALL-STATED). Pilot-to-production conversion rate: NOT SOURCED.